using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model 21 under two Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) 22 to create three scenarios: RCP4.5 23 (CESM_4.5) and RCP8.5 24 (CESM_8.5 and CM3_8.5). The GCMs are dynamically downscaled to a 36-km horizontal grid spacing over the contiguous U.S. Both models are members of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) ensemble 20. Scenarios are used from two GCMs: Community Earth System Model version 1 (a.k.a., the fourth version of the Community Climate System Model–CCSM4) (CESM) 18 and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory Coupled Model (CM3) 19. The influences of model resolution and statistical stationarity are mitigated with DRA by applying the probability statistics to two dynamically downscaled future periods. The downscaled projections reflect the presence of TCs, but their strength is underestimated due to the resolution of the projections 15, 16, 17. Here, we do not explicitly model future hurricanes rather, we examine potential changes in storm total precipitation informed by projections of future climatic conditions. To explore changes in extreme rainfall at ‘2100’, the Design-Rainfall Approach (DRA) is proposed, where observed rainfall statistics are adjusted for changes in probability statistics derived from the dynamically downscaled global climate models (GCMs). Recent extreme rainfall events illustrate that rainfall probability statistics based on stationarity assumptions can no longer represent the rapidly changing climate 10, 13, 14. ![]() Global mean TC wind speeds, precipitation rates, and intensity are projected to increase by the late twenty-first century 7, 11, 12, which underscores the need to examine how the most devastating storms in ENC may be enhanced by climate change. Since 1999, Hurricanes Floyd, Matthew, and Florence set record rainfall and discharges in ENC river basins 4, 10 (Fig. Additionally, the coastal plains of ENC have a limited elevation range, enhancing its vulnerability to prolonged flooding 9. Since 1886, over 160 TCs have passed within 500 km of the North Carolina coast, with a TC crossing the state every 2–3 years 8. 1) is among the most vulnerable regions for TC impacts in the U.S. TC precipitation will likely increase globally, and a 2 ☌ warming could increase the median TC precipitation rate by 14% at constant relative humidity 7.Įastern North Carolina (ENC, Fig. The 20-yr return value of the annual maximum daily rainfall-a measure often used in urban planning-could increase by an average of 5.3% ☌ −1 warming with wide regional variability 6. Throughout the mid-latitudes, extreme rainfall events will likely become more intense in a warmer world from increased tropospheric water vapor 5. During 1949–2018, TCs comprised 25 of the top 100, 4-day rainfall events nationwide 4 with one-quarter of the top 100 events occurring in the final decade of the 70-yr record, at a far greater frequency than in any other decade. During 1958–2016, there was a 27% increase in the 99th percentile precipitation 3 in the southeastern U.S. has received a greater proportion of its total precipitation from intense one-day rainfall events 2. has increasingly recorded more extreme precipitation events 1. Over the past century, the southeastern U.S. Consequently, there is a broad interest in quantifying the potential changes to extreme rainfall from TCs. Similar content being viewed by othersĮxtreme precipitation events driven by tropical cyclones (TCs) disrupt the quality of life in coastal plains and low-lying communities, where growing populations support important agricultural, environmental, cultural, and economic resources. ![]() during the early twenty-first century, which suggests that the intensity of projected future events is already a present-day reality. Although these magnitudes exceed the consensus in the literature, the values here are comparable to the most extreme rainfall events observed in the U.S. Maximum rainfall intensities at ‘2100’ could increase locally by 168%, with widespread regional increases in total rainfall up to 44%. Potential changes to extreme rainfall across ENC are explored and quantified for 2025–2100 for three tropical cyclones using an approach based on relative changes in future extreme rainfall frequencies (return periods) from dynamically downscaled projections. Historical climate records reflect an increasing trend in the frequency and intensity of extreme rainfall events across the eastern U.S., which is projected to continue to increase throughout the twenty-first century. ![]() In the past quarter-century, Eastern North Carolina (ENC) experienced several devastating tropical cyclones that led to widespread flooding and damage.
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